On the 14th of January, the British Chamber of Commerce hosted a breakfast-conference entitled: “Political and Economic Perspectives 2016” moderated by Armando Nuricumbo, President of the Financial and Business Services Business Sector Group, Ernesto O´Farril, President of Grupo Bursamétrica, and Germán de la Garza, General Secretary of Concertación Mexicana. Armando Nuricumbo moderated the event; he welcomed guests and brought a 2015 overlook of the main events in the global and national context.
Armando Nuricumbo, Germán de la Garza, and Ernesto O´Farril
It was the first event of the year!
The event started with an opening speech from Teresa de Lay, General Director, thanking everyone for attending the event, then presented Emilio Díaz, president of The British Chamber of Commerce. Emilio Díaz spoke about the plans for the future, to increase more events, networking and cooperation among the business sector groups, he thanked and welcomed guests.
Armando Nuricumbo began the panel with an overview of the main events in the global and national context, he quoted the World Bank regarding the global economic growth as “disappointing” with only 2.4% growth, the big problems were the emerging economies, lower oil and commodity prices, the increment of interest rates in the USA, such long term low growth may create bubbles.
Nuricumbo talked about possible future scenarios such as Brazil is no longer the protagonist and Mexico may assume the leadership, Latin American political trends may shift back to the right and to be more open to trade and commerce, he mentioned the Chapo´s capture, low oil prices will affect results with the energy reform, the next USA elections, the TTP commercial treaty, also Brazil is no longer a protagonist Mexico may take the leadership , then he introduced Ernesto
O´Farril presented the Economic Perspective; he started his presentation talking about the stocks, the long term perspectives, the global growths will not increase significantly, Inflation will also be lower and there may be risks of Japan-style deflation in some countries.
The financial markets are now overregulated and there is an over-fiscalisation, also the baby boomers of Mexico are going to start retiring and their consumption will change, a life expectancy will also increase, and with it higher rates of cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer, also new business models are taking over such as Uber are pushing innovation along with technology.
Climate change also affects the economy, O´Farril talked about the “black swans” such as FED reserve increase interest rates after years of low rates, further fall in oil prices, China slow growth. Crime in Mexico, ISIS, Boko Haram and other terrorist organisations, EU referendum, the USA Elections, Greece could leave the European Union; others may leave for greater monetary flexibility.
O´Farril closed his panel with the position of the Central Banks, the Fed, and the monetary perspective for 2016.
After O´Farril´s presentation, De la Garza presented how the political parties in Mexico are arranged, and the share per party in the Senate, 2016 is an important year 14 state elections will take place, he showed the states that have changed parties while others have remained faithful to the PRI. Some changes have been independent candidates with support from 1-4 parties; alliances are a trend Pri-Partido Verde, PAN-PRD which gives greater strength to the parties though still does not mean they will win.
After De la Garza´s panel, Nuricumbo opened the Q&A session and attendees participated with questions regarding the chinese yuan, investment opportunities, and independent candidates.
For the event´s full gallery click here.